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什么叫次贷?什么叫垃圾债?

定义本身并不重要。但是,当你的坏帐堆积如山的时候,你会对定义产生兴趣。我觉得,中国的银行系统以外的信贷几乎全部是次贷,包括租赁公司和信托公司的资产。很多公开发行或者私募发行的债券(不管什么评级)都是垃圾债券,或者叫高息债券。咱们的很多发行人所付的息率不高,那只是因为定价错误而已。

非银行金融机构从根本上说,就是银行的垃圾桶或者污水管道。

Why do we misprice subprime credit?

In 2011 when I left UBS to run a microcredit firm in China, I was confident of making a fortune. How could it go wrong? Borrow at 7% and lend at 24%. Sure, there were taxes, expenses, bad debts and so on. But smart guys like me should win.

Before long, I was humbled by bad debts and wrote a book about my failure: Inside China’s Shadow Banking.

In recent decades, millions of Chinese have tried and mostly failed in subprime lending. They are P2P, consumer lending, SME finance, credit guarantees, merchant funding, leasing, supply-chain financing, etc). The death tolls:

(1) Well over 70% of the 10,000 microcredit firms either shut or are paralysed.

(2) Of the 10,000 guarantee companies (CDS issuers), only a few hundred are surviving.

(3) In the 1990s, all trust & investment companies failed and their reincarnations are now dying too.

(4) P2P platforms? Much worse.

(5) SME financiers and supply-chain financiers? Do not mention them.

We all underestimated delinquency. Our interest rates should have been much higher. And most borrowers should have never been lent to.

Why did we consistently misprice subprime? Overoptimism? Foolishness? Volatile economy? Weak laws? Asymmetric info? I will do some research.
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