财新传媒 财新传媒

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央行降息。
 
股市不领情。
 
银行不领情。
 
消费者不领情。
 
雇主也不领情!
 
我在LinkedIn 博文中说,这个七天回购利率对中国巨大的信贷市场和经济没有意义。降低雨伞的价格可能更有相关性。
 
刺激经济的关键是:
 
(1)银行的贷款欲望(及坏账承受力),
 
(2)借款人的风险溢价,
 
(3)实业投资者的欲望。
 
短期利率与信贷市场和实体经济没多大关系。
 
China cuts interest rates: Trivia, trivia!
 
Bloomberg makes a big fuss about nothing. After China’s central bank cut an obscure interest rate by 20 basis points at lunch time, Bloomberg immediately says that (The) “People’s Bank of China reduces 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.20 per cent from 2.40 per cent, the largest cut since 2015.”.
 
After a national lockdown for 7-8 weeks, isn’t this a tiny bandage for a fatal car crash? Worse: This repo rate is irrelevant to the credit market or the economy. Reducing the umbrella price would be more relevant.
 
No wonder Shanghai stock index fell 0.9% today.
 
The point I made this morning in another post is:
 
(1) China is constantly stimulating its economy. 4 decades in a row.
 
(2) It does not need to make a show of it. The public knows the government is always working on it.
 
(3) Government does not need parliament to approve an action: stimulus or otherwise. They just do it.
 
(4) Labour market pressure is very minor because of an automatic stabiliser: millions of migrant workers.
 
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张化桥

张化桥

1392篇文章 2年前更新

香港慢牛投资公司董事长。瑞士银行11年 (研究主管/投行副主管)。86-89年任职人行总行。五年(2001-05)"机构投资者"杂志评选的中国分析师第一名。

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