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前几天,FT 登长文,讲过去二十多年,价值投资者的表现太差。

今天,FT 读者来信说,价值投资更象一个宗教信仰,而不是一个理性的投资方法。

巴菲特的老师格莱姆在去世之前,说过一段深奥的话,几乎粉碎了万人之梦。下面的信中有那段话。

Letter: Keeping faith with value investing makes no sense.

From John Price, Saratoga, CA, US.

May 13, 2020,

Reading the FT Big Read (Tuesday May 12) and the role of Benjamin Graham, who defined “value investing” in 1934, readers may not know that Graham in later years became well aware of profound changes in the availability of information and analysis, and its implications.

In 1976, the year of his death, he wrote: “I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity when ‘Graham and Dodd’ was first published, but the situation has changed . . . Today I doubt whether such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost . . . I’m on the side of the Efficient Market school of thought.”

Today, 46 years after Graham’s death, and despite years of poor returns for value stocks, the advocates of value investing are still “unshakeable in their faith that past patterns will reassert themselves”. To me, it now sounds more like a religion than a rational approach to investing!


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张化桥

张化桥

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香港慢牛投资公司董事长。瑞士银行11年 (研究主管/投行副主管)。86-89年任职人行总行。五年(2001-05)"机构投资者"杂志评选的中国分析师第一名。

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