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中国人并不希望美国垮台。

多数中国人认为美国的复苏是双赢的,而且希望走中国自己的路。

张化桥,Joe Zhang 日经亚洲评论 Nikkei Asian Review,

2020-10-30. (附英文原文)

二战以来,西方一直有一种共识:他们的那套民主和资本主义不仅是世界上最好的,而且是人类经济、社会发展的各个阶段中,唯一道德的政治形式。任何其它的形式都必须受到谴责和打压。如果那意味着谎言、禁运和战争,如果那意味着几百万人的死亡,他们也义无反顾。从朝鲜半岛到越南,再到阿富汗和伊拉克,他们都是这么残酷的、无情的。

西方人大谈多元和容忍。但是,美国思维是出奇的不容忍、极端化和自以为是。

在很多中国人眼里,这就是西方世界。70年代末以来,几千万、甚至几亿中国人,到世界各地旅行、学习、甚至定居,因此中国人的这些看法绝对不是封闭状态下的想法,绝对不是无知和愚昧。

西方国家的双重标准比比皆是。他们认为自己在控制疫情方面的无能和笨拙是可以接受的,而中国在最初期的失误是有罪的。在他们的眼里,在新冠病毒刚冒出来时,中国就应该巧妙地、神奇地把它消灭掉了,不致于后来蔓延。他们似乎认为,中国人应该熟知这个病毒的机理和运作,毕竟,正如他们声称,这是个“中国病毒”。

美国是很多中国人心中的偶像。中国人喜欢美国、甚至崇拜美国。70年代末以来,中国政府强力推行了外语教育,中国人民也热情拥抱了外语教育。四十年来,几百万中国人到了西方,不是为了盗窃知识产权,而是为了学习。这是中国对西方最大的恭维。

我这一代人都是每天听美国之音长大的,尽管收音机的信号受到干扰。美国是中国最大的贸易伙伴。难道我们希望我们的贸易伙伴崩溃吗?十多年来,中国人一直是美国大学最大的捐款来源。这是我们对美国的景仰之心的真实表达。难道我们希望偶像垮台吗?中国是美国外来投资的最大的源泉,包括股票和债券。难道中国人希望自己的投资标的垮台吗?

民粹是无知和愚蠢的杂交。中国有很多民粹的东西,就像其他国家一样。中国的改革开放也确实还不够快。但是过去40年,中国的开放也已经非常令人鼓舞。

如果西方人真的认为自己的政治制度那么优越,那为什么受不了中国的竞争呢?谁的制度更好,只需要让时间来证明。西方国家对中国完全善意的一带一路项目一直是歇斯底里地诋毁和破坏,充分显示了他们的心胸狭隘和畏惧。

对美国的人权问题、不平等问题、这次疫情暴露出的政府无能、以及选举中的混乱,中国人的感受是惊诧和痛苦。中国人并没有幸灾乐祸。

过去20年,中国人已经不再吹嘘社会主义制度的优越性。中国人也不再把西方式的民主当成洪水猛兽。中国人并不反对民主和选举。但是中国人不想跟苏联一样,实施振荡式的改革。也许中国五代人、六代人之后会尝试西方式的民主,但是现在不会。西方人等不及了吗?你们不是说耐心是美德吗?

作者是香港的一个金融科技投资者和企业顾问,曾经在中国人民银行担任经济师。他的英文著作包括,Party Man, Company Man: Is China’s State Nationalism Doomed?

英文原文如下:https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-does-not-want-to-see-America-fail

China does not want to see America fail

Most feel invested in US turnaround but want their country to have own path

Joe Zhang

October 30, 2020

Joe Zhang, a former economist at the People's Bank of China, is a consultant and investor in Chinese fintech companies as well as the author of "Party Man, Company Man: Is China's State Capitalism Doomed?"

Since the end of World War II, the West has lived with a consensus that its brand of capitalism and democracy is not only the best for mankind, but also the best for countries at all stages of socioeconomic development, irrespective of cultural differences.

As divided as they are on almost everything else, neither U.S. President Donald Trump nor challenger Joe Biden question the notion that the American system is far superior to China's.

Next week's election then is unlikely to change America's underlying stance toward China. For all the talk of tolerance, diversity and equality, American thought in particular can be incredibly intolerant, polarized and self-righteous.

To the U.S. establishment, any alternative system of governance must be condemned and crushed. If that means outright lying, attack, embargoes and even millions of deaths, so be it.

At least this is what many Chinese think can be seen in America's record in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and many other places.

Since the 1970s, millions of Chinese have traveled abroad and the Communist Party's censorship of the media has lost much of its effectiveness. One then has to have the humility to say that 1.4 billion Chinese are not all misinformed or wrong. After the downfall of the Soviet Union, feeling validated and emboldened by its Cold War victory, the U.S. stepped up its bullying around the world.

These days, there are widening cracks in the U.S. system of governance and the country's continued prosperity is not guaranteed. It may defeat itself.

From the Occupy Wall Street protests, to the plight of America's Black citizens and its increasingly dysfunctional political system, the country's democratic image is bleeding. It is too early to say if America's helicopter money, zero interest rates and rescue package after rescue package are going to lead the country out of the woods.

To many Chinese, the COVID-19 crisis has not only highlighted the weakness of some U.S. institutions but also American politicians' double standards.

Some U.S. politicians believe their own failure to slow the spread of the virus since February should be considered entirely acceptable despite ample notice of the dangers while the Chinese government's mishandling of the outbreak until late January was criminal.

These politicians seem to believe that Chinese officials should have known the workings of the virus all along and should have masterfully and magically put it down before it began spreading widely since, as they say, it was a "China virus."

Contrary to a common perception in the West, China is not taking pleasure in the free fall of Brand USA. Indeed, a majority of China's elite and the overall population want America to be greater.

The sorry state of America today hurts China and the class of liberal Chinese of which I count myself a member. Mainstream Chinese envy America, see it as a role model and even worship the country. My generation grew up listening to Voice of America radio every day despite the Chinese government's jamming of its signals.

Over the past four decades, China has sent millions of its young to study in the West -- not to steal intellectual property but to learn. This has been the sincerest form of flattery in my view.

China has also been source of more than $1 billion in donations to American universities since 2013, according to analysis by Bloomberg News and others. This support, the largest received from any foreign country, is an honest expression of admiration from China.

China is America's biggest trading partner. For over two decades, China has also been the biggest foreign investor in American debt and equity. Do we want our biggest trading partner to collapse? Do we invest in America hoping it will fall apart?

In my view, nationalism is mostly a product of ignorance and of bad education. Unfortunately, there is a fair bit of both in China, just like elsewhere.

China also happens to be a country that has forced all its educational institutions to teach at least one foreign language since 1977. Its population has warmly embraced this.

China has admittedly been slow in opening up some parts of its economy, but by and large, the progress it has made in reform over the past four decades is nothing short of spectacular and has seen the country move closer to the Western consensus. Few observers have noticed that even the Communist Party propaganda machine has avoided boasting of "the superiority of the socialist system" for two decades.

This should be very encouraging. In my view, the vast majority of Chinese are gradually coming to the realization that Western democracy may not be such a bad thing after all. But given the costs, they reject the notion of rapid political and economic transformation along the lines of the shock therapy that followed the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1989.

If the Western system of governance is so superior, why is the West unable to handle competition and the U.S. so desperate to destroy the current Chinese system? Why is the West sabotaging China's well-meaning investments in developing countries and elsewhere? To me, this only reflects jealousy and insecurity.

If China is not embracing Western democracy yet, it only means we are not ready. Who is to say we will not give it a try several generations down the road?

Too slow? But did not you say that patience is a virtue?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-does-not-want-to-see-America-fail



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